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Saturday, April 3, 2010

Jobs Report From BLS At Odds With Reality

The new BLS employment numbers are out and it looks like the numbers are a wash we have certainly not really gained 162’000 jobs in this country. The report is not accurate due to the underreported and needlessly complicated process the BLS uses, and what jobs we have gained are still being offset by the loss of quality jobs all across the country.

Facts you will not see in the BLS report are that unemployment among teen agers is 75% nationally. This means that all school aged kids out looking for work over the summer will be unable to find jobs and there is the fact that we need to create 100,000 jobs a month just to break even because of people entering the work force every month.

We continue to lose quality jobs that are only replaced with seasonal part time and Crap jobs in Retail and fast food. Americans are becoming more desperate and fed up with the Spin on the data coming out of the government across the board, and in particular with the White House, the FED, and every government agency that is selling a recovery that is total fiction.

The crazy’s are starting to come out of the woodwork fueled by the irresponsible rhetoric that comes from the cable news channels and even the floor of the house and senate.

To many in office and in the media these antics are just another round of gamesmanship by the press and politicians that care nothing for the damage they are doing but only for profits, ratings and political notoriety.

Damage is being done that will take, if we are lucky decades to repair most likely our grand children and great grand children will be dealing with the ripple effects of our economy and the political decisions that are being made for a hundred years.

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reports a net gain of 162,000 new payroll jobs in March 48,000 at least (probably more) are temporary census jobs so that’s 114,000 real jobs right, well maybe not the current ADP payroll report indicates that payrolls actually dropped by 23,0000 in March . Bear with me here so we have the BLS reports a net gain of 162,000 jobs ADP repots a loss of 23,000 ADP does not count government payroll jobs. So the census jobs would not be included in this total so that’s a difference of 25,0000 jobs . Also the numbers on the BLS report do not add up (as usual) in addition they do admit the long term unemployed went up to 44.1 percent a new record. it looks like the numbers are a wash as we continue to lose quality jobs and they are replaced with seasonal part time and Crap jobs in Retail and fast food if at all. The BLS did state long-term unemployed made up 44.1 percent of all unemployed persons, a record high. What this means is that Americans have been unemployed longer and there is no real end in sight. See my blog post for the Feburary BLS Report

Here are links to the latest BLS report and related stories you may find of intrest.

The BLS Report just released today
States, employment rose by 162,000 in March, unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for the third month in a row. The March employment increase also included 48,000 workers hired by the federal government for Census 2010.

LA Times Reports

March yields first solid growth in jobs since recession

ADP National Employment Report Shows U.S. Employment Decreased by 23,000 Private Sector Jobs in March
(The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.)

CBS Money Watch Reports
Memo to Congress: Stop Touting Small Business Job Growth

Fox Business Reports
Though most forecasters did not revise their outlook in light of the surprising ADP report showing a loss of 23,000 private sector jobs in March, the real ADP disappointments were that February jobs losses went from 20,000 to 24,000 and service sector jobs gains in January turned negative. The underlying messages in the ADP data were a) private sector hiring is continuing to lag other indicators and b) weather played little role in February’s report of 36,000 job losses, except to the extent that a smaller percentage of businesses contacted responded to the February jobs survey than the January survey. (Since participation in the survey is voluntary, firms which chose not to respond may have instead chosen to use the time to clear up work which had been put aside due to February storms.)

Several analysts did some strained verbal gymnastics to explain why they were not taking the ADP report into consideration and revising upbeat forecasts for the Friday jobs report, though in advance of the ADP numbers some of the same analysts noted how the ADP and BLS numbers (for private sector payrolls) have converged in recent months.

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