12 Days to Collapse Of the Auto Induetry Failure in the Global Economy

The Japanese earthquake and Tsunami on Friday March 11 2011 2:46 Pm local time devastated the eastern coastal areas of a 250 mile swath of the country, as well as having a major impact on the rest of the country. This caused power outages, travel stoppages and massive disruption of normal business in addition to the thousands of dead and injured all over the country.
But this is not about the loss of life and the devastating effect to the people of Japan, though they have our prayers. This is about the lay off and shut down of effected industry’s in the US and around the world A mere 12 days since the events and many companies are without parts to run their assembly lines, All the car makers in America and Europe, Sony, Hitachi, even the highly anticipated Apple I pad 2 has been effected and is in short supply.
Think about this, while a significant event, this really only impacted one country, and yet due to the nature of just in time inventory, if it’s not just in time you’re in trouble.

A single point failure is defined as: Element or part of a system for which no backup (redundancy) exists and the failure of which will disable the entire system.

The global  economy has not served to lessen our risks of failure, in reality each part is so very dependent on the other , “we don’t even know” how all the interdependencies affect  one another, and  we can’t even calculate the possible damage or the effect of one country’s infrastructure or economy being removed , even for such a short time.

Before and After Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant pictures

Fukushima Daiichi power plant, before the 9.0 earthquake and Tsunami.

After





Digital Globes Before and after satellite images

" On March 14, 2011 between 11:00 and 11:04 AM local time (02:00 and 02:04 GMT), DigitalGlobe’s constellation imaged

the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant twice--approximately 1 minute before (see page 5) and approximately 3

minutes after (see slides 6,7 & 8) an explosion at the No. 3 reactor building. This is the second major explosion seen at the

facility, following the explosion at the No. 1 reactor building on March 12, 2011 (see page 4).

Substantial damage could be seen to the reactor building, including the upper structure being largely destroyed with the

building’s roof and side panels blown off. In addition, an extensive smoke and dust plume could be seen drifting east

approximately 2 kilometers from the damaged reactor building." 

Jobs Report From BLS At Odds With Reality

The new BLS employment numbers are out and it looks like the numbers are a wash we have certainly not really gained 162’000 jobs in this country. The report is not accurate due to the underreported and needlessly complicated process the BLS uses, and what jobs we have gained are still being offset by the loss of quality jobs all across the country.

Facts you will not see in the BLS report are that unemployment among teen agers is 75% nationally. This means that all school aged kids out looking for work over the summer will be unable to find jobs and there is the fact that we need to create 100,000 jobs a month just to break even because of people entering the work force every month.

We continue to lose quality jobs that are only replaced with seasonal part time and Crap jobs in Retail and fast food. Americans are becoming more desperate and fed up with the Spin on the data coming out of the government across the board, and in particular with the White House, the FED, and every government agency that is selling a recovery that is total fiction.

The crazy’s are starting to come out of the woodwork fueled by the irresponsible rhetoric that comes from the cable news channels and even the floor of the house and senate.

To many in office and in the media these antics are just another round of gamesmanship by the press and politicians that care nothing for the damage they are doing but only for profits, ratings and political notoriety.

Damage is being done that will take, if we are lucky decades to repair most likely our grand children and great grand children will be dealing with the ripple effects of our economy and the political decisions that are being made for a hundred years.

The BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) reports a net gain of 162,000 new payroll jobs in March 48,000 at least (probably more) are temporary census jobs so that’s 114,000 real jobs right, well maybe not the current ADP payroll report indicates that payrolls actually dropped by 23,0000 in March . Bear with me here so we have the BLS reports a net gain of 162,000 jobs ADP repots a loss of 23,000 ADP does not count government payroll jobs. So the census jobs would not be included in this total so that’s a difference of 25,0000 jobs . Also the numbers on the BLS report do not add up (as usual) in addition they do admit the long term unemployed went up to 44.1 percent a new record. it looks like the numbers are a wash as we continue to lose quality jobs and they are replaced with seasonal part time and Crap jobs in Retail and fast food if at all. The BLS did state long-term unemployed made up 44.1 percent of all unemployed persons, a record high. What this means is that Americans have been unemployed longer and there is no real end in sight. See my blog post for the Feburary BLS Report

Here are links to the latest BLS report and related stories you may find of intrest.

The BLS Report just released today
States, employment rose by 162,000 in March, unemployment rate was 9.7 percent for the third month in a row. The March employment increase also included 48,000 workers hired by the federal government for Census 2010.

LA Times Reports

March yields first solid growth in jobs since recession

ADP National Employment Report Shows U.S. Employment Decreased by 23,000 Private Sector Jobs in March
(The ADP National Employment Report, created by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), in partnership with Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, is derived from actual payroll data and measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month.)

CBS Money Watch Reports
Memo to Congress: Stop Touting Small Business Job Growth

Fox Business Reports
Though most forecasters did not revise their outlook in light of the surprising ADP report showing a loss of 23,000 private sector jobs in March, the real ADP disappointments were that February jobs losses went from 20,000 to 24,000 and service sector jobs gains in January turned negative. The underlying messages in the ADP data were a) private sector hiring is continuing to lag other indicators and b) weather played little role in February’s report of 36,000 job losses, except to the extent that a smaller percentage of businesses contacted responded to the February jobs survey than the January survey. (Since participation in the survey is voluntary, firms which chose not to respond may have instead chosen to use the time to clear up work which had been put aside due to February storms.)

Several analysts did some strained verbal gymnastics to explain why they were not taking the ADP report into consideration and revising upbeat forecasts for the Friday jobs report, though in advance of the ADP numbers some of the same analysts noted how the ADP and BLS numbers (for private sector payrolls) have converged in recent months.

Consequences’ of the end of oil

This is a three part report on the predicted impacts of peak oil to society and the world economies. The report while couched in the jargon of the scientific academia is terrifying in its implications. This scholarly article is a joint effort between two highly respected organizations.

Feasta, a leading international think-tank exploring the interactions between human welfare, the structure and operation of human systems, and the ecosystem which supports both, and,


The Risk/Resilience Network, an initiative which was established in order to understand energy induced systemic risk, the scope for risk management, and general and emergency planning.

For god,s sake at least look at the summary of the report

This paper talks about the likely systemic impacts of peak oil, including the possibility of collapse. With a long publication such as this, it is difficult to know how to present a reasonable subset of the material. In this post, we are publishing the Summary as Part 1. Our tentative plan is to publish three additional excerpts from the paper later. Those who wish to read the paper now can download it from the link .


The lead author of this publication is David Korowicz. You may remember him for his talk at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alkatraz, Italy last summer called Things Fall Apart: Complexity, Supply Chains, Infrastructure & Collapse.

Tipping Point: Near-Term Systemic Implications of a Peak in Global Oil Production - Part 1 - Summary (report excerpt)


by Gail Tverberg

For Example : The credit crisis exemplifies society's difficulties in the timely management of risks outside our experience or immediate concerns.  TRANSLATION people and society cannot handel events outside its immediat experiance AKA dident see it comming now were screwed, save me save me.

As individuals, and as a social species we put up huge psychological defences to protect the status quo. We've heard this doom prophesied for decades, all is still well! What about technology? Rising energy prices will bring more oil! We need a Green New Deal! We still have time! We’re busy with a financial crisis! This is depressing! If this were important, everybody would be talking about it!
TRANSLATION Its always been that way my daddy, mydaddies daddy  have been living the fat happy good life and so will I.

Wall Street Despised, Most Want Oversight, Poll Shows

Wall Street Despised, Most Want Oversight, Poll Shows

Most people interviewed in the Bloomberg National Poll say they don’t like Wall Street, banks or insurance companies

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-03-24/wall-street-despised-most-want-oversight-poll-shows-update1-.html



Sales of new homes in the US fell to their lowest level on record

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8585568.stm



The latest Fox News poll finds that 79 percent of voters think it’s possible the economy could collapse, including large majorities of Democrats (72 percent), Republicans (84 percent) and independents (80 percent).

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/03/23/fox-news-poll-say-economy-collapse/



Fla. jobless rate reaches record 12.2 pct in Feb

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hQ-fyW7bNW0jkjNFEavBzzxs84UwD9EMFKP00



Colorado Jobless Rate Rises to 7.7 Percent in Feb.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2010/03/26/business/AP-US-Unemployment-Colorado.html

States Reduce Services to Poor

Minimal attention that is being shown by the media to the budgets crisis that is happening across the country and the massive impacts that this is having and will have across the country.


“Taxes are being raised. Draconian cuts in services are being made. Public employees are being fired. The tissue-thin national economic recovery is being undermined. And in many cases, the most vulnerable populations — the sick, the elderly, the young and the poor — are getting badly hurt.”

There will be more cuts that affect the poor the young and the middle and lower incomes. Truly we have the best government money can buy, and to that extent they are taking care of their constituents there constituents’ being big business and the rich, and we have politicians lining their own pockets spending their terms in office and then moving out into multimillion dollar lobbyist jobs and jobs working for the very company’s there are supposed to be providing oversight on.

The headlines when you can find them are grim prices continue to rise dramatically across the board for everyday goods that we all use but somehow don’t make the consumer price index. Real working people who make twenty to thirty to thousand dollars see their marginal incomes eroded further each day.

I don’t sense that our government really cares or they even really understand the hopelessness that more and more Americans feel every day. What further events will bring we can only wait and see

Colorado Out of Unemployment Money, Forty Other States As Well

Colorado is just one of forty states borrowing money from the federal government to pay unemployment benefits the question really is where is the federal government getting the money? Colorado is just one of FOURTY states that do not have the money to continue to pay unemployment benefits’, the issue becomes what happens next, we are printing money that has less and less value every day, real inflation (what we really pay for goods and services as opposed to the fictional numbers the Fed and the what house puts out) cost us more and more every day.

There is no economic recovery remotely on the horizon barring a miracle we are headed for massive unemployment far exceeding the 24 million we currently have. The economic disaster on the horizon will be compounded by the 8,000 boomers a year retiring the housing market the artificially inflated values of the stock market. See the full story

Colorado unemployment fund out of money, but still paying

The fund officially ran out of state money Jan. 20, but the state has borrowed $122 million from the federal government as of Wednesday to keep benefits flowing to unemployment insurance recipients, according to Wayne Peel, chief financial officer of the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment. The state borrows the money from the federal government on a daily basis and does not exceed what the state needs to pay unemployment benefits.

Colorado is one of 30 states and U.S. territories receiving federal help to pay unemployment benefits. Peel said he expects three more states — Arizona, Delaware and New Hampshire — to join the list by the end of the month. The federal government expects to loan money to as many as 40 states by the end of the recession, Peel said.

The Colorado fund’s insolvency stemmed from high demand for benefits — the state processed 19,141 first-time, unemployment-insurance claims in June 2009, compared to 7,790 in June 2007 — and a system for filling the trust fund that hasn’t changed with inflation in more than 20 years. The fund’s balance shrank from $676.5 million in November 2008 to $161.7 million in November 2009, according to materials the Department of Labor and Employment presented to the Legislature’s Joint Budget Committee in December. The state paid an average of $88 million a month in the first 10 months of 2009.

Gasoline Prices Back On the Rise\Production Falls

• U.S. Petroleum Product Prices. Regular-grade gasoline prices averaged $2.35 per gallon in 2009, increasing from an average of $1.79 per gallon in January 2009 to $2.61 per gallon in December. EIA expects these prices will average $2.84 per gallon in 2010 and $2.96 per gallon in 2011. Average regular-grade pump prices likely will exceed $3 per gallon at times during the upcoming spring and summer and will easily pass that benchmark in high-cost regions, such as the West Coast. Due to forecast growth in motor gasoline consumption, the difference between the average gasoline retail price and the average cost of crude oil increases slightly in both 2010 and 2011.
Production growth in 2011 slows sharply to 20,000 bbl/d, as substantial declines in the Federal Gulf of Mexico and Alaska almost offset gains in lower-48 on-shore production.

States Scramble To Cover Expenses

Some news items that show how city’s and states are struggling with their defects, note the amounts of money here, we will see more city’s slash budgets reduce services and come after more of your money in tax dollars. The first is a Fed reserve official saying that we cannot continue to print money as we have our debts now exceed the GNP for the average year, the consequence of this will be massive inflation unemployment and the virtual destruction of the middle class. We have still not learned any lessons from this we continue as a country to write checks we cannot cash. The news you hear of low inflation, the drop in jobless claims and a decrease in unemployment is complete fiction, Washington has made an art out of feeding misinformation to the American public. The saying goes to be forewarned is to be forearmed listen , hear, watch, observe, prepare, make what preparations’ you can for the coming hardship we all face. Good luck.

Govts Need Fiscal Stimulus Exit Plan

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Calling government budget deficits unsustainable, a top Federal Reserve official on Thursday called on national leaders to start laying out plans that would allow a move back to more manageable spending levels.
"Just as there needs to be a credible exit strategy for monetary policy to anchor inflation expectations, there also needs to be a credible exit strategy from fiscal policy stimulus to anchor expectations about the risks of sovereign debt default," Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley said Thursday.

California:


The first attempt at solving some of California's $20 billion budget deficit ended far short of the goal Thursday, as the Legislature adjourned its special session on midyear cuts to the state budget.

Illinois : Budget Woes Have Schools Expecting the Worst

In Elgin on Monday night, it is not going to matter who is bluffing, winning or losing in the heated debate under way in Springfield over the state’s gargantuan budget hole.

The legislature may argue for months over Gov. Patrick J. Quinn’s proposed $1.3 billion in education cuts and his plan to raise state income taxes, or they may ignore it. But school officials cannot wait.


New York: A Way to Bail Out New York

New York State is facing a $9 billion budget deficit in the coming fiscal year — a calamitous shortfall that is likely to get worse before it gets better. The state’s credit rating is at risk, and painful budget cuts are inevitable.


New Jersey:

Chris Christie on N.J.’s budget crisis

GOVERNOR CHRISTIE: It's going to be painful, Pat, it really is. We have an inherited an 11.2 billion dollar budget deficit for next fiscal year. We'll be addressing that budget deficit in my speech on Tuesday and I will tell you it's going to be painful for all New Jerseyans. But I know that if we dig in and we fix our problems honestly now that we'll be in a position for economic growth as the economy recovers.



Hawaii's budget outlook gets slightly worse

HONOLULU -- Hawaii's projected budget deficit grew by about $50 million Thursday, a relatively small bump based on signs that the economy is stabilizing.

The state Council on Revenues, which predicts how the economy will influence tax collections, left its forecast unchanged for the current fiscal year ending in June, but it toned down its prior optimism about next fiscal year.



Maryland

The highwaymen from Annapolis

With state lawmakers clamoring to find ways to reduce spending, it’s not surprising that Baltimore’s share of transportation aid has drawn attention like hungry lions eyeing a wounded zebra. But a proposal to cut $30 million in city aid, not to help balance the state budget but to enrich more affluent jurisdictions, demonstrates how nature’s carnivores have nothing on the predators in Annapolis.

Such blatant theft would surely make the Sheriff of Nottingham proud. Taking so-called Highway Users Revenue from Baltimore and giving it to the counties is nothing short of stealing from the poor to benefit the rich. With a potential $2 billion deficit looming next year, state spending needs to be cut, but that doesn’t mean legislators should be harder on the city than local governments with fiscal problems nowhere near so dire.

Media Ignores State Financial Misconduct

While I am currently working on a new article about the massive budgets deficits that 48 of the 50 states currently have, the expected deficits this year as well and into 2011 as well, I have noticed an ever growing trend of virtually every major city in the country proposing either massive budget cuts that affect city services or major tax increases or both. Nowhere have I see any real reporting by the main stream media about why just about every city and state is in financial crises that is only going to get worse in the coming months.


All governments, Federal, State and local seem to have two things in common the first is that they invest our hard earned tax dollars into what have turned out to be poor investments, and second they spend every dollar that comes in the door , I mean every dollar not just on infrastructure ,like roads and bridges sewers and water, actually the trend has been they have spent less and less money on infrastructure and more on social programs.

I do not doubt the need for such programs, I doubt the management and the waste of everything the government does. Take for example what happens if an administrator is wise and frugal and does a good job and actually doesn’t use all the money in their budget for the year, are they rewarded no they are punished the budget is actually cut by that amount the next year . This encourages waste because they are by god going to spend every single dime they get and ask for more next year saying it was not enough.

So why is there no reporting on this issue essentially the times were good and every one spent or invested all the money, now times are bad and there all broke. I challenge you to try this in your personnel finances, if you did you will shortly find yourself broke or in jail maybe both. How can we hold our government to a lesser standard than we ourselves must adhere to.

Collapse Documentary Is a Must See

Radical thinker Michael Ruppert outlines his apocalyptic vision of our world after the collapse of industrial civilization. A documentary by Chris Smith, the director of "American Movie" & "The Yes Men"

This movie is well worth checking out Michael Ruperts ideas are thoughtful plausible and not the usual ravings you get from some of the peak oil crowd.

I recommend checking out his book.:

Confronting Collapse: The Crisis of Energy and Money in a Post Peak Oil World
See the reviews at Amazon.

At the least the works should provoke some thoughtful debate about our economy and the world at large.

BLS Snow job on the Jobless Numbers in February

BLS reports jobless rates inflated due the February snow. The snow indeed has fallen like a blanket across the white house and federal government. All major media outlets have jumped on the bandwagon and report that everything is really much better. Never mind they report the national average for unemployment is around 9% when it is really over 16% close to 17%. Also they lay the ground work to blame the march report again on the February snows and no one is even mentioning the fact that march numbers will show a gigantic drop in unemployment due to the hiring of 3.8 million temporary census workers for the 2010 census.


There are still over 17 million unemployed in this country and probably more to come. Obviously they believe the average American to be an idiot and having seen the lack of public response to the blatant propaganda coming from the government and frrm wall street I would have to agree.

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2010

Nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (-36,000) in February, 9.7 percent overall, Employment fell in construction and information, while temporary help services added jobs. Severe winter weather in parts of the country may have affected payroll employment and hours; however,(Bold underline added) it is not
possible to quantify precisely the net impact of the winter storms on these measures. For more information on the effects of the severe weather on employment estimates, see the box note at the end of the release.

New Jobless Numbers ?

The department of labor releases it’s February jobs report tomorrow ahead of this release the news seems to be rushing to say that the winter storms over the last month may affect the numbers by as much as a 100,000. While I am sure the weather plays a part, I don’t see that it can possibly be blamed for the over 17.4 Million unemployed we currently have in this country. See my post of 2/5/10 for a refresher on how those numbers are put together. How Many People Are Unemployed in America

What I can glean from this is the white house is already spinning the numbers for the best possible outlook while separate sources like the LA times quote reports of the loss of over 20,000 private sector
Jobs in February. Others crow about the slowing amount of new unemployment a claims which at this point really means that most of the layoffs have already happened. NPR reports that the boost to the employment numbers the temporary Census jobs will create are looked forward to with anticipation.

 We have now sunk so low that we are supposed to be excited over the mostly low paying census jobs?

USA Today reports

It's a thin silver lining to the financial crisis as high unemployment and economic uncertainty make recruiting 3.8 million Census workers this year and next a lot easier. The hiring binge is adding jobs that pay $10 to $34 an hour and may last a week to two years across the USA: 7,000 people in the next 18 months in Montana and northern Wyoming; more than 800 people in Kern County, Calif.; 800 in Vermont. The New York regional office, which includes New York City and 10 counties in New Jersey, will need about 6,000 people this spring.

The vaunted jobs bill just passed by the Senate has very little to do with jobs and a whole lot to do with pork. The bill is primarily a boon to state highway construction projects and will mostly reduce the number of layoffs of state workers and may possibly create a few very low paying minimum wage jobs. The $35 Billion dollar bill is poorly written makes little or no impact on the issue of job creation and seems to be the best that that the house and senate can do. No major legislation has been passed by both houses since the TARP when they gave Trillions of dollars to Wall Street. Where did all that money go?

New Fed Report Dismal With a Chance Disaster

Here is an excerpt from the Fed’s latest economic survey released today I read the summary for each area and have to say that the Feds assessment is at best overly optimistic and at worst a complete fiction. I pulled the story and the report off the AP feed my comments are in bold italics throughout. The other sources of information listed by the states for the Boston region are all from recent stories from the major papers in the areas.
Overall the economic conditions range from dismal to abandon hope all ye who enter here.
Unfortunately I didn’t have much trouble finding information that seems clearly contrary to the mostly lackluster description of the economy by the Fed. I grew weary of looking up the available information that just shows this report is just more of the same BS we have been hearing for months . As you can see it's broken doen by area so take a look at your region and see if you agree with the Fed. 


Highlights from the Fed's latest economic survey

By JEANNINE AVERSA (AP) – WASHINGTON — Highlights from the Federal Reserve's survey of economic conditions nationwide. The survey, released Wednesday and known as the Beige Book, is based on information collected from the Fed's 12 regional bank districts.

BOSTON (This region covers Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island and part of Connecticut.)

Economic conditions showed improvement. Most manufacturers said demand strengthened, with makers of semiconductors and related equipment reporting "sharp snapbacks." Merchants reported mixed sales results and are cautious about the outlook. Home and condo sales picked up, helped in part by the government's homebuyer tax credit. Signs of modest improvements in commercial real-estate activity reported.

My comments : other sources report;


Boston: Though residential real estate is seeing improvements, a commercial real estate collapse threatens to wreak havoc on the economy should preventative measures not be put in place. How the Metro Boston region will be affected remains to be seen My comments Also the jobs outlook looks to be more low paying and temporary jobs and hireing for the census , Looks like the Fed is a little off on the outlook again. Other sources report: Temporary jobs are currently up. The 2010 census will also bring in a bevy of new, temporary jobs, and other industries are starting to hire again. Professional businesses are now hiring managers, consultants, accountants and lawyers.


Maine : Baldacci, who outlined his proposals at a news briefing in his office, did not rule out further changes in the weeks left before lawmakers adjourn, saying the economy -- which drives the state budget -- remains unpredictable.


"Despite today's good news, we know the economy is fragile and our economy is far from certain," the governor said.


Vermont: State and local governments have already cut about 150,000 jobs since August 2008, according to Kavet. Without the federal recovery money, that number might have reached 450,000. The purpose of the federal recovery money was to keep people working, including people in the public sector who are doing important work. As legislators winnow through proposed cuts in state spending and their effects both on Vermonters receiving services and on Vermont jobs, they need to employ a many-sided analysis, including the potential effects of targeted tax increases as a way to preserve services and to keep the economy from sinking beneath the burden of another 1,000 lost jobs.


New Hampshire : Insurance goes up by 12% WellPoint Inc., which is under congressional scrutiny for insurance rate hikes in California as its profits climbed last year, will raise individual market rates by about 12 percent in New Hampshire, according to a new report.


My comment:Water goes up: The increase in utility revenues resulted from the net effect of higher water rates granted by the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission


My comment:Jobs Decline: State officials said New Hampshire's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in January was 7 percent, up 0.1 percentage points from December's revised rate ...


Rhode Island : Rhode Island currently has a 12.9% unemployment rate, and 50000 Rhode Islanders are receiving unemployment insurance (UI) benefits

NEW YORK

(This region covers New York and parts of Connecticut and New Jersey.)

The economy flashed further signs of strengthening, despite some slowing in the housing market. Many manufacturers planned to increase employment and capital spending in the months ahead. Retailers mostly reported sales ahead of expectations, although some said February's severe snowstorms did slow business. Tourism activity in New York City picked up before the bad weather but was crimped when the storms hit. Both the residential housing and the commercial real-estate markets softened. Banks reported weaker demand for all types of loans and rising delinquency rates mostly for consumer loans.

PHILADELPHIA

(This region covers Delaware and parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey.)

Economic conditions improved in some places. Factories reported widespread increases in shipments and new orders. Retailers, however, said a rising sales trend was interrupted by February's snowstorms. Similar reports came from car dealers, residential real-estate agents and home builders. Across industries, businesses say they expect only slow improvements in sales in the months ahead.

CLEVELAND

(This region covers Ohio and parts of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky.)

The economy showed signs of improvement, although activity still remains below pre-recession levels. Factories said production was stable or rose modestly, and orders increased. Steel shipments were in line with expectation. Freight companies reported an increase in shipping volume. A majority of retailers said sales improved slightly from a year ago. Shoppers continued to focus on buying necessities. New-home sales picked up slightly.

RICHMOND

(This region covers Virginia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina and parts of West Virginia.)

Economic activity slackened or remained soft across most industries because of severe winter storms. Retail sales — with the exceptions of items like food — were weaker. Big-ticket sales, including cars, dropped sharply. The bad weather also hurt sales at service companies, with airports, hotels and restaurants feeling the pinch. Many manufacturers lost a few days of production during the storms but were able to make up most of the lost activity. The housing sector was mixed, with bad weather limiting activity in many areas. The jobs market weakened.

ATLANTA

(This region covers Georgia, Alabama, Florida, and parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.)

Economic activity was mixed. Retailers said sales were lower than expected, although tourism-related spending increased. Miami saw strong demand for hotel bookings due to the Pro Bowl and the Super Bowl. New Orleans got a boost from Mardi Gras. Factories noted some improvements in new orders and the decline in production eased. New-home sales softened, with the weakness most pronounced in Georgia.

CHICAGO

(This region covers Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and parts of Illinois and Indiana.)

Economic activity improved at a moderate pace. Consumer spending increased slightly, although auto sales were weak. Factory activity gradually improved and orders increased, mostly reflecting the restocking of shrunken inventories. Demand from Asia boosted exports, but with growth in China expected to slow, companies predicted export activity would moderate as well. Construction activity stayed weak. In agriculture, corn prices fell amid last fall's record harvest. Hog and cattle prices rose, while dairy prices flattened.

ST. LOUIS

(This region covers Missouri, Arkansas and Kentucky, and parts of Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee and Mississippi.)

Economic conditions were mixed, but showed signs of improvement in some areas. Manufacturing picked up, with more factories planning to expand operations or increase hiring. Retailers saw sales decline from a year ago. Auto sales were roughly the same. Home sales were mixed, as was activity in the commercial and industrial real estate markets. In agriculture, production of corn, soybean and rice rose in 2009 from 2008 in most states in the region. Production of sorghum, winter wheat, cotton and tobacco fell.

MINNEAPOLIS

(This region covers Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin and Michigan.)

Economy grew modestly. Growth was reported in consumer spending, the services sector, energy, mining and home construction. Tourism was mixed, while manufacturing and commercial construction activity were stable. Softness in labor markets persisted. In agriculture, activity was down. Lenders expect overall agriculture income and spending to decrease in the first quarter of this year.

KANSAS CITY, Mo.

(This region covers Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of Missouri and New Mexico.)

Additional signs of modest growth reported. Manufacturing activity expanded but didn't lead to more hiring. Residential real-estate markets benefited from tax credits, while commercial real-estate activity weakened. Retailers' sales were weaker than expected, with some mall operators attributing that to winter storms. Energy activity expanded, with new drilling for gas concentrated in Oklahoma. In agriculture, the winter wheat crop was in good conditions, with limited reports of freeze damage.

DALLAS

(This region covers Texas and parts of New Mexico and Louisiana.)

Economic activity improved. Retailers' sales improved from a year ago, and department store sales were better than expected. Manufacturers tied to construction-related industries continue to hurt. High-tech manufacturers continued to see strong growth in production and orders. Makers of fabricated metals, though, saw a slightly pickup in orders, while makers of transportation equipment said activity was mixed. Home building picked up, but commercial real estate activity remained depressed.

SAN FRANCISCO

(This region covers California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, Hawaii and Alaska.)

Economic activity increased modestly. Retail sales firmed, with discount chains and department stores reporting sales increases. New car sales slipped. Factory activity was mixed. Demand grew for semiconductors. New orders for commercial airplanes and parts was sluggish, but backlogs of unfilled orders kept production steady. The pace of home sales was mixed, and the supply of unsold homes is high. Prices rose a bit. Commercial real-estate activity weakened. Sales grew for agricultural products, but oil drilling and capital spending were held down by weak global demand.

DoD Joint Chiefs and Army war collage Brace for Civil Unrest

I at first doubted the veracity of reports stating that the Army War college in Ft Leavenworth had advised that U.S. Troops will be needed to maintain or restore civil unrest due to possible riots because of the collapsing economy, unemployment and growing dissatisfaction over the way our government is being run.  These reports are indeed true . Initially the troops were to be used as a rapid reaction force to respond in the case of a chemical, nuclear, or biological attack. More recently there mission seems to be changing to more of a peace keeping role in the event of wide spread civil unrest. Translation: Americans decide they have had enough not being fairly represented by the congress and the federal government and actually do something about it for a change.

This story was originally reported in the Washington post (see the whole story).

Pentagon to Detail Troops to Bolster Domestic Security

By Spencer S. Hsu and Ann Scott Tyson

Washington Post Staff Writers

December 01, 2008 "Washington Post" -- The U.S. military expects to have 20,000 uniformed troops inside the United States by 2011 trained to help state and local officials respond to a nuclear terrorist attack or other domestic catastrophe, according to Pentagon officials.

KBR a halliburton subsidiary a private security contractor (read mercenary) has been awarded a contract to build detention camps for a supposed sudden influx of illegal immigrants. The key phrase in this story is:


The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster.


Given halliburtons track record and KBR , do we really want these types of non governmental soldiers for hire running detention camps . Think WWII what do Japanese Americans think of this as they have already had a taste or our gentle government stripping away there rights there possessions and goods and being thrown into prison for countless years during WWII.  

More concerning is the fact that these plans are orchestrated and conducted almost off the radar with little or no public scrutiny or over site. We have seen what happened in the banking and economic sector  in the absence of government or public scrutiny. I have great concerns about these plans as from my experience in the military , we only hire contractors to do things that are too  dirty too questionable for regular U.S. forces.

This is the whole story from the WSJ:
By Katherine Hunt HAL




SAN FRANCISCO (Market Watch) -- KBR, the engineering and construction subsidiary of Halliburton Co. said Tuesday it has been awarded a contingency contract from the Department of Homeland Security to supports its Immigration and Customs Enforcement facilities in the event of an emergency. The maximum total value of the contract is $385 million and consists of a 1-year base period with four 1-year options. KBR held the previous ICE contract from 2000 through 2005. The contract, which is effective immediately, provides for establishing temporary detention and processing capabilities to expand existing ICE Detention and Removal Operations Program facilities in the event of an emergency influx of immigrants into the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs, KBR said. The contract may also provide migrant detention support to other government organizations in the event of an immigration emergency, as well as the development of a plan to react to a national emergency, such as a natural disaster, the company said.

I include the whole story here because its important to realize that the report and story would not have been released had the Army War Collage not been allowed to. The further issue is that even the suggestion of using U.S. troops on American soil is totally contrary to the military mindset and the fact that the war college the premier think tank and training center for all high ranking military commanders  is  working  to develop plans and training guidelines of this type or scenario is disturbing to say the least .

I was in the Army during the Waco incident and I remember the controversy that the use of combat troops form Fort hood in the attack on the compound caused. I do not now nor did I believe that the use of us combat troops used against American citizens was right justified or legal under the Constitution. 

December 29, 2008


McClatchy-Tribune Information Services

A U.S. Army War College report warns an economic crisis in the United States could lead to massive civil unrest and the need to call on the military to restore order.

Retired Army Lt. Col. Nathan Freir wrote the report "Known Unknowns: Unconventional Strategic Shocks in Defense Strategy Development," which the Army think tank in Carlisle, Pa., recently released.

"Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities ... to defend basic domestic order and human security," the report said, in case of "unforeseen economic collapse," "pervasive public health emergencies," and "catastrophic natural and human disasters," among other possible crises.

The report also suggests the new (Barack Obama) administration could face a "strategic shock" within the first eight months in office.

Fort Bliss spokeswoman Jean Offutt said the Army post is not involved in any recent talks about a potential military response to civil unrest.

The report become a hot Internet item after Phoenix police told the Phoenix Business Journal they're prepared to deal with such an event, and the International Monetary Fund's managing director, Dominique Strauss-Khan, said social unrest could spread to advanced countries if the global economic crisis worsens.

Javier Sambrano, spokes-man for the El Paso Police Department, said city police have trained for years so they can address any contingency, but not with the military.

"The police (department) trains on an ongoing basis as part of its Mobile Field Force Training," Sambrano said. "As a result, the police will be able to respond to emergency situations, such as looting or a big civil unrest. The police (department) does not train with Soldiers."

Earlier this year, Pentagon officials said as many as 20,000 Soldiers under the U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) will be trained within the next three years to work with civilian law enforcement in homeland security.

Joint Task Force-North, a joint command at Biggs Army Airfield, which conducts surveillance and intelligence along the border, comes under NORTHCOM. No one was available at JTF-North to comment on the Army War College's report. NORTHCOM was created after the 9-11 attacks to coordinate homeland security efforts.

Soldiers under the former Joint Task Force-6 (now JTF-North) supported the Border Patrol in El Paso with its drug-interdiction operations.

In case civilian authorities request help or become overwhelmed, El Paso has several National Guard and military reserve units that can be called on. In 1992, National Guard and active Marine and Army units were deployed to help police control riots and looting in Los Angeles.

Charles Boehmer, political science professor at the University of Texas at El Paso, was skeptical about the Army War College report.

"The military was not called out during the Great Depression, and I don't think our economic problems are as bad as they were then," he said. "The military always has contingency plans. It's a think tank's job to come up with scenarios, but that doesn't mean it represents an active interest on the part of the (Pentagon)."

How Many People Are Unemployed in America

I was completely shocked at the total number of unemployed in this country. I listen to the news and the radio and I also read a lot on line as well. I was dismayed that it really does seem that these numbers are presented to us on a daily basis in the most inane and misleading way possible. When is the last (or the first) time you have heard the number of unemployed people.

You haven’t. You have been told the percentage of the new jobless claims, and this usually only for the last week or so. We are told constantly how the first time jobless claims have fallen.

We are never told how many people are still unemployed or given the total number, or even any numbers other than some vague percentage. The way this is reported is obviously meant to be as positive and as harmless as possible.

Unfortunately this does not represent a true picture of what is happening in this country. I don’t believe we can make reasonable decisions if we do not know what the true facts are, so what are the numbers.

Though this seems a simple question it takes a bit of digging and a calculator to come to a solid number. The news media only reports a vague percentage and never never gives a firm total although the numbers are out there easily found from the most recent report from the department of labor statistics. I wonder why the true numbers are not being reported and can only assume that there is a defacto agreement between the white house business and media as to how these events are portrayed. I make no judgment as to the motivation behind this or even imply a negative one and can only hope this is done out of some expectation of a positive effect. I do not think that Americans can make a reasonable informed logical decision about anything not their own welfare or how to vote and what legislation or actions to support or oppose.

I myself was stunned at the total of Americans out of work and the difficulicity and complexity of deciphering the report from the bureau of labor statics. well here it is the total of unemployed as of the 2-5-10 report release date is 17.4 million unemployed I include the link to the labor and statistics report for those more intrepid or skeptical (help yourself). I also include a link to a site that has really excellent charts that more fully illustrate the impact of the unemployment results.

Excerpt forn the Febrauary 5th report from the Breau of Labor Statistics

Employment Situation Summary JANUARY 2010


Friday, February 5, 2010

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January

In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million, and the unemployment rate

Fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent. In January, the number of persons unemployed due to job loss decreased by 378,000 to 9.3 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up in January, reaching 6.3 million. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of long-term unemployed has risen by 5.0 million.

This means prior to the start of the current recession there were only 1.3 Million of long term unemployed and as the result of the recession that number has risen by 5 million persons.

The number of persons who worked part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell from 9.2 to 8.3 million in January. A loss of almost a million part time crap jobs e.g. fast food, retail and labor jobs. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in January, an increase of 409,000 from a year earlier. These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.1 million discouraged workers in January, up from 734,000 a year earlier.

Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

The remaining 1.5 million people marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities

This would be a total of 2.6 million people 1.5 +1.1=2.6 not 2.5 million.

Also since the 2.6 million were not added to the previous numbers the total come to 17.4 million unemployed Not 14.8 million as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports.

Construction employment declined by 75,000 Transportation and warehousing employment fell by43, 000 due to loses among couriers and messengers.

Employment in manufacturing was little changed in January (11,000) In January, job gains in motor vehicles and parts (23,000) and plastics and rubber products (6,000) offset small job losses elsewhere in the industry.

In January, temporary help services added 52,000 jobs. Since reaching a low point in September 2009,

Temporary help services employment has risen by 247,000.

Retail trade employment rose by 42,000 in January, after showing little change in the prior 2 months.

Job gains occurred in January among food stores (14,000), clothing stores (13,000), and general merchandise

Retailers (10,000).

Health care employment continued to trend up in January. Ambulatory health care services added

15,000 jobs over the month.

In January, the federal government added 33,000 jobs, including 9,000 temporary positions for Census

2010. Employment in state and local governments, excluding education, continued to trend down.

Market Tumbles

American's are more pessimistic about economic recovery reports CNN business and WSJ market watch today after the DOW drops over 80 points as of this writing there’s still a few minutes left In the trading day so this could change . Reports indicate that the drop was due to the new report out today indicating that consumer confidence sank to 46.0 ther projections were for 55.9. Normaly healthy economy rings in at about 95 points and the experts have again missed the mark expecting only a slight drop. Obviously the experts don’t shop at the same stores that we do. All I have seen is a never ending increase in prices for food clothing and medicines the up down up down of gas prices while a lot lower than last year do not offset all the high prices we are paying for everything else .

The report also notes that consumers remain extremely pessimistic. My question is what exactly we would be excited about. We all know too many people that are unemployed at this time, and in many cases they have no choice but to ride out their unemployment to the bitter end, before they then head out to the fewer and fewer jobs at seven eleven’s, wall-mart, and Mickey D’s.

The report also states that the percentage of consumers, who said that conditions are good, dropped to 6.2% from 8.5%. Who are these people, how they could even find 6.2% of any group who thinks things are good is beyond me. These must be people who were given funds from the TARP.

The government continues to live in a state of denial, the never ending stream of propaganda coming out of the beltway by both party’s continues to be an unending litany of admit nothing deny everything and make counter accusation’s

CA Town Charges $300.00 for 911 calls

Tracy CA a bedroom community in the San Francisco bay area with a largely white population of about 70,000 has decided to charge residents for 911 calls they have a choice, either pay $48.00 per year and call 911 all you want, or pay $300.00 per call. According to statistics Tracy had 31,700 reported crimes between 1999 and 2006 (the last year that has complete data). This is just slightly higher than the national average for the same period. Clearly the local city government has found a way to net a cool $3,360’000 a year, if the residents all pay the new yearly fee. Of course if they don’t then they may face the $300.00 per call surcharge or maybe die. Obviously if faced with a violent crime you would call 911 to save your life, but what about your neighbors, or even better a stranger. The effects of this decision may very well have disastrous consequences for some citizens. Here is just another sign that all over America city and state governments are cutting services and raising fees because of the poor judgment and miserable financial decisions of our local city state and yes even the federal government and as usual we pay the price in more ways than one. Keep an eye out this could be coming soon to a city near you, maybe yours.

All Others Pay Cash

South Carolina Congressman Mike Pitts has introduced legislation that would ban federal currency in his state and replace it with gold and silver coins.
The congressman is concerned that the U.S. economy could collapse due to the massive amount of government spening that is happening and the Fed continues to print money at an alarming rate driving the value of the dollar down. Combine this article with other information that has come to light over the last week and we begin to see what is possibly a very grim scenario.

The nearly failed debt auction: The Fed just had and auction and and instead of China, Japan, and other traditonally big buyers or our debt buying, our own banks bought most of it. More distubing a huge chunk went to undisclosed buyers that are probably just a cover for own goverment buying back our own debt.

The problem is the banks are using Taxpayer dollars to buy this debt in the first place, using funds we gave them in the TARP. This is money we printed out of thin air in the first place. Esintially we are printing more money to buy our own debt back . Its like paying one credit card with another on a larger scale than anyone can imagine.

When China stops buying our debt the whole house of cards will come tumbling down. Added to this China has her own financel problems if they start selling off us debt at pennies on the dollar our whole economy will come crashing down.

As of this moment there is not way to stop this crisis from happening at some point there are too many balls in the air its only a question of when now not if.
On Wednesday, February 10 2010, the US Treasury issued $16 billion in 30-year Treasuries. Here are the buyer data points:

European Union On the Brink Of collapse

This article heralds the possible demise of the EU while country's (especially poorer ones) were happy to share in the prosperity of the EU. Now that the global economic depression is widening the crack in the tenuous relationships of the EU country's. Either the EU Will have to cast off it's weaker sisters and brothers creating a distinct rift between the already beleaguered eastern EU country's and the more prosperous.

This basically says that to paraphrase Benjamen Franklin, "we must all hang together or most assuredly we will hang separately. Even the possibility of a break up of even a single country would have disastrous consequences not only for the EU but for the world.

The immediate problem: the entire country of Greece is about to go bankrupt. They've got overly generous pensions and benefits, they've displayed a seemingly petulant unwillingness to consider belt-tightening, and their government sector is veritably Italian in its efficiency and size. This is not the stuff that long-term economic health is made of.

The bigger problem: Greece is part of the Eurozone and, while its long been kind of funny to refer to them as the "honorary member," the other 15 countries who share the Euro aren't amused. The bankruptcy of any individual state would tank the shared currency, cascading across the continent in ways that are totally unpredictable (the upshot of a disaster which was never even a consideration when the Eurozone was formed). If it did happen, most of what we've thought about travel for the last decade—dollar vs. Euro, the long-term stability of the EU, frictionless travel across Europe, etc—would quickly have to be revised.